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Industrial Automatic Control Systems and Controllers

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Construction of a Mathematical Model of the Metal Heating Furnace Zone (Gain Factor) Based on the Analysis of Technological Data
Fomin A.V., Zhukov P.I., Savostin N.V.

The purpose of this work is to build a mathematical model that establishes the dependence of the gain of the zone of
a multi-zone furnace on various technological parameters collected by the automated process control system during the
operation of the thermal unit. Examples of such technological parameters are: the position of the gate of the smoke pump,
the vacuum in the hog of the smoke pump, the average time spent by the workpieces in the zones, and others. Based on the
analysis of technological data, a classical statistical model of extreme gradient boosting of a random forest based on tree-like
DART models was proposed. As a result, it was possible to obtain a model with an accuracy of 89% according to the metric
of absolute percentage average error (MAPE).
Keywords: Regression analysis, heating furnaces, extreme gradient boosting, XGBoost, zone gain, DART, ART.

Pp. 27-35.

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