Industrial Automatic Control Systems and Controllers Annotation << Back Computer Attack Model in Conditions of Limited Protection Capabilities and Construction of Predictive Models of Computer Incidents A.Yu. Ermakova The paper offers a mathematical model of a computer attack in conditions of limited protection capabilities and considers the issues of constructing experimental predictive models of incidents related to vulnerabilities of information systems and models of computer attacks for the purpose of mining cryptocurrencies. Previously the author developed a method of calculating the evaluation level of security of information systems (is) based on the analysis of the incidents, the forecasting model as a continuous function of time function of risk and the definition on the basis of a parameter characterizing the degree of protection of IP – time safe operation. The mathematical model of a computer attack is constructed using the apparatus of probability theory and combinatorial analysis. Predictive models for the occurrence of incidents related to information system vulnerabilities and attack models for mining cryptocurrencies are based on the previously developed tools for building predictive models of dynamic systems. Estimates of the time of safe operation of the information system, in respect of which attacks are implemented for the purpose of mining cryptocurrencies, are obtained. Keywords: theoretical and probabilistic attack model; information security incidents; predictive model; safe operation time. DOI: 10.25791/asu.6.2020.1194 Pp. 50-57.