Industrial Automatic Control Systems and Controllers Annotation << Back Comparative Analysis of Probabilistic Indicators of Business Processes Using GERT-Network and Simulation Modeling Methods Ikonnikova M.F., Kovalev I.V., Podoplelova V.A. The article analyzes the effectiveness of using the GERT method to assess the probabilistic-time characteristics of business processes. For the study, the business process “approval of a purchase application” in ARIS eEPC notation is described. This process is broadcast to the GERT network to predict the completion time of the process. This method is compared with simulation modeling in the Anylogic environment. The business process is translated into a simulation model. The mathematical expectation and variance of the process execution were calculated. Based on the results obtained, conclusions were drawn regarding labor costs and accuracy. It is shown that the GERT network and the simulation model are close in accuracy, but for the task at hand, GERT is a less labor-intensive and more accurate method. This research is important for managing and optimizing processes in enterprises and organizations. The applicability of various forecasting methods has been demonstrated and can be used to improve decision making. Keywords: Business process, simulation model, ARIS eEPC, GERT, stochastic networks, forecasting. DOI: 10.25791/asu.3.2024.1494 Pp. 30-37.